This course aims to provide students with the statistical and econometric techniques relevant to forecasting in a business environment, as well as the computer implementation of the methods. This course is designed for students who want to learn how forecasts are developed and used in the business context, with special emphasis on modern statistical methods that are widely used to generate business forecasts. It concentrates on applications such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as other dimensions of long- and short-range business planning. Included topics are statistical review, optimal forecast combination, model selection, time-series decomposition, data considerations and exponential smoothing.
- Comprehend the need for and usage of forecasting in a business context and discuss the fundamental elements that influence the success of forecasting procedures.
- Use basic statistical techniques and graphics to forecast values.
- Comprehend the basic concepts required to use the linear regression model when forecasting.
- Understand qualitative forecasting techniques in a business environment.
- Model and forecast the various possible trend components of a set of values.
- Use the World Wide Web to access material on forecasting methods as well as useful data that may be utilized when forecasting.
- Combine the trend, seasonal and cycle components to generate a more precise forecast of a set of values.
- Analyze and use the Box-Jenkins or the ARMA procedure.